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PLO8 Hand 8: Don't Pray for Miracles

$200 PL Omaha Hi/Lo - a beautiful July day
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: yinster ( $466.31 )
Seat 2: ur4060atbest ( $367.77 )
Seat 3: Loosey ( $130.70 )
Seat 4: Villain ( $173.17 )
Seat 5: SomeGuy ( $134.89 )
Seat 6: JoeBlow ( $136.63 )
Seat 8: dikhertz ( $202.80 )
Seat 9: Foldy ( $338.30 )
Seat 10: socrpimp9 ( $137.40 )
Seat 7: Hero ( $191 )
socrpimp9 posts small blind [$1].
yinster posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Q Q A 3 ]
ur4060atbest folds.
Loosey calls [$2].
Villain calls [$2]
SomeGuy calls [$2].
JoeBlow calls [$2].
Hero raises [$15].
dikhertz folds.
Foldy folds.
socrpimp9 folds.
yinster folds.
Loosey folds.
Villain calls [$13].
SomeGuy calls [$13].
JoeBlow calls [$13].

I have a pretty strong hand for a short-handed pot, so my objective is to narrow the field. I have good position in CO+1 so I will likely get to act last on future betting rounds. This table was fairly loose, so I was pretty sure I had the best hand and pretty sure I would get called.

Let's look at Villain's hand right now. He has 2c 4s 6d 7s This is just not a good hand. I might try to limp with it in late position because if it does hit strongly as with a A3 or A5 flop, you are likely to get action. However, you'll hit a flop like that something like 1 in 20 times. And once you are raised, you'll be putting in 10% of your stack so you just don't have the odds now, especially out of position. So Villain makes a small mistake with his first call and a moderate mistake on his call of the raise.

** Dealing Flop ** [ 5, T, 6 ] pot = $62, 4 players
Villain checks.
SomeGuy checks.
JoeBlow checks.
Hero bets [$62].
Villain calls [$62].            Villain has $160 left before this call.
SomeGuy folds.
JoeBlow folds.

I am pretty happy with this flop. My overpair QQ will be good over 50% of the time and I have the nutflush draw. For low I have the second nut low draw. So my hand is pretty strong in this spot and I am willing to get all the chips in. Even vs. a monster like A2TT I am still ok shape here.

Let's look at my opponents call. He is putting in 40% of his stack here on a call, and has just the 5th nut low. For high, anything he hits whether it is the straight or two pair will put a low on the board. As it turns out, he has just 3 outs to give himself a hand that is scooping on the turn - every other card gives me a low or makes my flush. And with that much money in, he can't count on me folding very often. His turn call is a another moderate mistake here. But its one that was created by his pre-flop call.

** Dealing Turn ** [ 3 ] pot=$186
Villain is all-In for $96.17
Hero calls [$96.17].

Unfortunately for me, he hits his miracle card. So what should I do? I'm getting $282.17 to $96.17 or 2.93 to 1 odds for the pot

So I clearly don't have odds to call, and should not try to chase my own miracle.

** Dealing River ** [ 8 ]
Villain shows [ 6, 7, 2, 4 ] a straight, four to eight.
Villain shows 6,5,4,3,2 for low.
Hero shows [ Q, Q, A, 3 ] a pair of queens.
Hero shows 8,6,5,3,A for low.
Villain wins $189.17 from the main pot with a straight, four to eight.
Villain wins Lo ($189.17) from the main pot with 6,5,4,3,2.