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PLO8 Hand 7: Big Pots and Fold Equity

$200 PL Omaha Hi/Lo - Monday in July Seat 5 is the button Total number of players : 10 Seat 2: Hero ( $213.9 ) Seat 6: OtherDude ( $378.23 ) Seat 3: LABobby ( $152.34 ) Seat 8: WayLoose ( $254.05 ) Seat 1: PLANET29 ( $106.66 ) Seat 10: Loosey McGoose ( $133.48 ) Seat 7: casperswc ( $48.2 ) Seat 9: AverageGuy ( $198 ) Seat 5: Villain ( $225.4 ) Seat 4: LOVEisabel2 ( $200 ) OtherDude posts small blind [$1]. casperswc posts big blind [$2]. ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to Hero [ 8 A 3 Q ] WayLoose calls [$2].
WayLoose has VPIP of 70 after around 60 hands, but seems ok post-flop.

AverageGuy calls [$2].
AverageGuy has VPIP of 35, and is very passive pre and post-flop.

Loosey McGoose calls [$2].
Loosey McGoose has VPIP 85 after 30 hands . He has been very passive post-flop

PLANET29 folds.
Hero raises [$13].
LABobby folds.
Villain calls [$13].
Villain has VPIP 25 and likes to call preflop to try and bust good hands. He is known to aggressively push marginal hands post-flop, and is a slightly losing player after 300 hands

OtherDude folds.
casperswc folds.
WayLoose calls [$11].
AverageGuy calls [$11].
Loosey McGoose calls [$11].

I raise the max preflop for several reasons: 1) I have an ok but not great hand. It is a hand I'll raise with but just barely - probably the absolutely weakest hand I'd consider raising here; 2) But it rates to be significantly better than any of my 3 opponents range of hands here; 3) there is a moderate amount of money I can win here, 4) the 3 players after me have VPIPs of 25, 23 and 37, so I had a good chance of becoming last to act on all future hands.

When they all call, I am not too happy, but then I figure that I have better than my fair share of the equity and have good position.

** Dealing Flop ** [ 9, K, 3 ] pot = $68, 5 players in
WayLoose bets [$7].
AverageGuy folds.
Loosey McGoose calls [$7].

Ok, decision time. Way Loose had been min-betting like this quite a bit. I put him on being dealt 4 cards and having a weak hand, since a real monster would have tried to check-raise me. When Loosey called, I also put him on having 4 cards since there are few draws and I feel a set would not want to let a flush draw cheaply.
pot=$82 now; Hero has $200 behind

So Hero raises full-pot [$93]. Why? I have a Q-hi flush draw and a pair of 3's here, and am jamming into 3 opponents. When I posted this on 2+2 disguising myself and Villain as only Player 1 and Player 2 here, I was universally criticized. Even after discussing the hand with a respected player, he still thought I was crazy. So am I? Let's take a look:

Normally, we'd want to start with our opponents' range of hands, but this time we'll work backwards.

First, it's important to note that the pot odds are enormous here. There is $86 in the pot and I have $201 left in my stack, so I'm getting 1.4 to 1 on my money here if i get it all in. So vs. 1 other player, I only need to have 41.5% equity in this hand WHEN I'M CALLED. This is probably the most important defining feature of this hand.

How often can an opponent call me here? Let's do some math and see.
Chances that 1 opponent will catch 2 pair on this flop: 12%
Chances that 1 opponent will have a set on this flop: 4%
Chances that 1 opponent will have Ax spades: 4%
Total chance 1 opponent can call me is ~20% here.

What I think happens here is that the human mind is simply not good at calculating the probability of rare occurrences, and not good at evaluating the returns from low-probability/high reward events.

Net, in a normal situation here, my hand would be a clear fold. But this is not normal, because

  1. The pot is huge in comparison to what is left to bet. So I should be willing to risk much to get it
  2. There are relatively few hands that can call me here
  3. My hand plays well against an opponents range here, and I am almost never in bad shape vs. just 1 opponent.