PLO8
Hand 7: Big Pots and Fold Equity
$200
PL
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 2: Hero ( $213.9 )
Seat 6: OtherDude ( $378.23 )
Seat 3: LABobby ( $152.34 )
Seat 8: WayLoose ( $254.05 )
Seat 1: PLANET29 ( $106.66 )
Seat 10: Loosey McGoose ( $133.48 )
Seat 7: casperswc ( $48.2 )
Seat 9: AverageGuy ( $198 )
Seat 5: Villain ( $225.4 )
Seat 4: LOVEisabel2 ( $200 )
OtherDude posts small blind [$1].
casperswc posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 8s Ac 3s Qs ]
WayLoose calls [$2].
WayLoose has VPIP of 70 after around 60
hands, but seems ok post-flop.
AverageGuy
calls [$2].
AverageGuy
has VPIP of 35, and is very passive pre and post-flop.
Loosey McGoose calls [$2].
Loosey
McGoose has VPIP 85 after 30 hands . He has been very passive post-flop
PLANET29 folds.
Hero raises [$13].
LABobby folds.
Villain calls [$13].
Villain
has VPIP 25 and likes to call preflop to try and bust good hands. He is
known to aggressively push marginal hands post-flop, and is a slightly losing
player after 300 hands
OtherDude
folds.
casperswc folds.
WayLoose calls [$11].
AverageGuy calls [$11].
Loosey McGoose calls [$11].
I
raise the max preflop for several reasons: 1) I have an ok but not great hand.
It is a hand I'll raise with but just barely -- probably the absolutely weakest
hand I'd consider raising here; 2) But it rates to be significantly better than
any of my 3 opponents range of hands here; 3) there is a moderate amount of
money I can win here, 4) the 3 players after me have VPIPs of 25, 23 and 37, so
I had a good chance of becoming last to act on all future hands.
When
they all call, I am not too happy, but then I figure that I have better than my
fair share of the equity and have good position.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9s, Ks, 3d ] pot = $68, 5 players in
WayLoose bets [$7].
AverageGuy folds.
Loosey McGoose calls [$7].
Ok,
decision time. Way Loose had been min-betting like this quite a bit.
I put him on being dealt 4 cards and having a weak hand, since a real monster
would have tried to check-raise me. When Loosey called, I also put him on
having 4 cards since there are few draws and I feel a set would not want to let
a flush draw cheaply.
pot=$82
now; Hero has $200 behind
So
Hero raises full-pot [$93]. Why? I have a Q-hi flush draw and
a pair of 3's here, and am jamming into 3 opponents. When I posted this on
2+2 disguising myself and Villain as only Player 1 and Player 2 here, I was
universally criticized. Even after discussing the hand with a respected
player, he still thought I was crazy. So am I? Let's take a
look:
Normally,
we'd want to start with our opponents’ range of hands, but this time we'll
work backwards.
First,
it's important to note that the pot odds are enormous here. There is $86
in the pot and I have $201 left in my stack, so I'm getting 1.4 to 1 on my money
here if i get it all in. So vs. 1 other player, I only need to have 41.5%
equity in this hand WHEN I'M CALLED. This is probably the most important
defining feature of this hand.
So,
let's put them on some hands that can consider calling me here. If I'm up
against 1 player with:
vs.
KQT9 = 48.5% He has two pair.
vs.
KKT9 = 34.6% if he has a set
vs.
A29T w spades = 25.7% He has flushdraw + low + higher
pair
vs.
A28T w spades = 55% He has flushdraw +
low
vs.
TJQK = 50% He has straightdraw +
higher pair
So
if you give him an equal chance of having each of those hands that could call me
here, then on balance I am probably correct to CALL his all in here!
Remember I only need 41.5% equity to get all in.
But
how often can an opponent call me here? Let's do some math and see.
Chances
that 1 opponent will catch 2 pair on this flop: 12%
Chances
that 1 opponent will have a set on this flop: 4%
Chances
that 1 opponent will have Ax spades: 4%
Total
chance 1 opponent can call me is ~20% here.
If
we group them together, then across all 3 opponents, the chances they will have
one of those calling hands is ~50%. So they will all fold 50% of the time,
if they have to have 1 of those hand groups. But let's say someone will be
willing to call me with just Kxxx here. Maybe that will happen part of the
time since many won’t gamble with just Top Pair here, so let's arbitrarily
adjust our number down to say 20%. And that feels about right -- 20% of
the time, every one folds here.
So,
20%
of the time, I win $86 outright.
80%
of the time, I am called and then my equity is slightly positive if he's got A2s
or two pair, and slightly negative if he has a set or flush with pair.
Obviously,
this is EV+.
Now,
what about the times that several players call me?
It's
true that I am in more trouble against more players. But how often will
that happen?
If
someone has two pair/set (16% of the time), then the other player needs a
flushdraw (4%). So that only happens ~2% of the time! So 2 times in
100 I am totally dominated and lose my $200, whereas 20 times in 100 I'll win
$86 without a fight!
What
I think happens here is that the human mind is simply not good at calculating
the probability of rare occurrences, and not good at evaluating the returns from
low-probability/high reward events.
There
are a couple other interesting things about my hand. If I'm up against the
nutflush draw, then he must have two spades and those spades cannot be pairing
the board since I have the 3s here. Therefore, he has only two cards
remaining to have a wired pair or to pair the board. This means my pair of
3's is well over 50% likely to be ahead right now vs. a nutflush draw.
And, I have 3 spade blockers to prevent him from hitting his hand.
On
the other hand, if I'm up vs. a set, my pair of 3's can serve as a blocker, and
my flushdraw is very likely to be live against him.
Net,
in a normal situation here, my hand would be a clear fold. But this is not
normal, because
1)
The pot is huge in comparison to what is left to bet. So I should be
willing to risk much to get it
2)
There are relatively few hands that can call me here
3)
My hand plays well against an opponents range here, and I am almost never in bad
shape vs. just 1 opponent.
4)
The times I am in real trouble are only when up against two players who each
have a portion of my hand dominated -- and that is just a very rare occurrence.
Villain
is all-In for $210.
WayLoose folds.
Loosey McGoose folds.
Hero calls $110
I
am not at all happy he pushed all-in, as I am certain to be no better than 50-50
here, and I very briefly consider folding, but I'm getting over 3:1 on my money,
and as we've just seen I am never that bad off vs. just 1 opponent.
**
Dealing Turn ** [ 4c ]
**
Hero shows [ 8s, Ac, 3s, Qs ] a pair of threes.
Villain shows [ 2d, Js, As, 6c ] high card ace.
Villain wins $11.5 from side pot #1 with high card ace.
Hero wins $480.8 from the main pot with a pair of threes.
There was no qualifying low hand.
So
my lowly pair of 3's hold up to win. But when you look at his equity vs.
me here, we are almost exactly 50% - 50% to win the hand. So the net
result here is that I put $200 in for a 50-50 chance to win $286. I
make $43 every hand if we run this millions of times.
The
lesson:
1.
You can't just look at hands on the surface. Your instinct/intuition can
be wrong when dealing with rare occurrence events.
2.
Always be looking for EV+ opportunities, even with small edges.
3.
When the pot is massive in relation to money yet to bet, you should be willing
to risk much to get it.
4. Keep in mind how your hand is likely to play against specific other hands -- in this case, I am almost never in big trouble vs. just one opponent and have blockers vs. their likely hands.