PLO8 Hand 4: Mistakes with A2xx
$200 PL Omaha Hi/Lo - a Monday in July
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: Villain ( $143.9 )
Seat 2: amanager ( $334.31 )
Seat 3: Hero ( $390.5 )
Seat 4: xhatt ( $115.89 )
Seat 8: TooTall_Pete ( $78.18 )
Seat 9: chillag ( $213.45 )
Seat 10: Banbury_Boy ( $145.75 )
Seat 6: PeKaNi ( $145.77 )
Seat 7: lucky4liife ( $198 )
Loosey McGoose posts small blind [$1].
Hero posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ah Qh 7s As ]
xhatt folds.
PeKaNi folds.
lucky4liife folds.
TooTall_Pete folds.
chillag folds.
Banbury_Boy folds.
Villain calls [$2].
Loosey McGoose raises [$5].
Hero raises [$18].
Villain calls [$18].
amanager folds.
I have an excellent hand with AAQ7ds, and am a favorite heads up vs. any hand except AA with a better low. With AAds with a weak low, I want to be either heads up so my AA can win unimproved AND so my opponent's low has less chance of hitting, OR I want a big volume pot so if I hit top set or the flush draw I can win for high. I'm happy to play against any number of opponents with a hand this good, but my hand is relatively better vs. a small or large number, so I'd prefer to avoid 2 or 3 opponents. Here, I am hoping that Villain folds and SB calls, so I will get paid on a strong hand, be up against just 1 opponent, and have position on him.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qs, 6d, 4c ]
Hero bets [$43.7].
Villain calls [$43.7].
This is a below average flop for me, but very playable. I should be ahead of most hands here, so I bet out hoping to take it down right here. I am representing A2 with alittle something, so he should be willing to fold a fair number of hands, and since I have only an overpair and a weak low, I'm happy if he folds. Villain in this hand is pretty tight preflop (VPIP ~20), so I figure him for an A2 as most likely here and don't want to give him a free draw for low. He is pretty passive post-flop, so if he raises me it is an easy fold, and if a low comes, then I need to make tough decisions. But he should fold a bare A2 here, so betting is the percentage play.
My weak A7 for low is significantly better when going up against one opponent rather than two on this type of flop. One opponent could easily have a hand like A24T where he now has just A2 for low with no counterfeit protection, so I effectively pick up 3 outs (the 2's) for low. Or if he has 2366 for example, then I have 6 outs (the 2's, 3's) for low. Whereas if I'm up against two opponents, then its quite likely they don't have overlapping cards for low, and one might have A2 and the other 35, in which case I have no outs at all for low. If you average those 3 or 6 outs, it's 4.5 outs on average, or 2.25 outs for the whole pot since the 4.5 outs are just for low. Net, being up against just 1 opponent probably adds about 5% to my hand equity here that I would not have vs. 2 opponents.
I'm not so happy when he calls me, as it means he definitely has A2, and likely something else.
** Dealing Turn ** [ Qd ]
Hero bets [$80].
Villain calls $80 and is all-In.
The Q gives me top trips and is obviously a very good card for me. I am only behind to 66 or 44 here and if I am up against that I have ~6 outs for high and at least 6 outs for low and possibly 16 outs for low. I must push here to try and get low draws or straight draws to fold or charge them to draw.
** Dealing River ** [ 9c ]
Hero shows [ Ah, Qh, 7s, As ] three of a kind, queens.
Villain doesn't show [ 2h, Ac, Jd, 2s ] two pairs, queens and twos.
Hero wins $290.8 from the main pot with three of a kind, queens.
My opponent played this hand horribly. First, he needs to correctly evaluate his hand. PLO8 is about scooping, and his hand will rarely scoop. He basically needs a wheel, or perhaps two low cards and a J to feel good on the flop. Even if he hits a 2 for a set, its bottom set and puts a low card on the board and he can't win low. So he needs to be thinking about this hand like, "My hand is pretty weak here. It's main value is in getting a low flop with multiple opponents so I can win low and have several people in to pay it off. Even tho it has an A2, the second 2 cripples it and I have no flush draws so this is pretty close to the weakest possible A2 I could hold. Since it is an A2 however, I'm not folding, but I'm not at all excited either".
Preflop: So when it's checked around to him, he should either call hoping to see a cheap flop, or raise hoping to win the blinds uncontested and hoping for a low flop to salvage something. He has some other information to help him decide what to do: 1) Everyone at the table folded, meaning the blinds or deck is likely rich in Aces. 2) he'll be playing the pot shorthanded or heads up, and 3) The SB is pretty loose, and I was moderately tight. So I personally would probably bet here because a) I might win the blinds uncontested, and b) I'd find out if I was up against a very strong hand, c) it might let me take a free card if others check to the raiser on the flop. So I think he makes a small mistake preflop.
After he sees SB bet, and BB (me) raise, he should know he is an underdog. To max-raise the SB, I will have a good A2, a very good A3, or AA to make this play. Against that range the best he can hope for is to have the best low draw, but will still be behind for high. He should clearly fold. Calling a is moderate-sized mistake here.
On the Flop: He has no chance at all for high, and needs 16 cards to hit low. But winning low when heads up means he will get half of the existing pot, which is $21.85. And that is the most he can win on this hand, barring some freaky high accident. He ends up putting $120 at risk on the turn and river combined to try and win $21.85. Not smart. Unless he was planning some bluff when a low card hit, but then that is high risk, and I could still have hit beat for high even then. Calling here is another moderate sized mistake.
On the Turn: Now he must call $80 for a chance to win the $131 in the pot + my $80. Since he is effectively going just for low, he really is shooting for half the $131 or $65.5 and he must risk $80 to win it. That means he must hit low 80/65+80 = 55% percent of the time. With 45 unseen cards, that means he needs ~24 outs for low, but of course he has just 16 outs. He should fold, and calling here is another moderate sized mistake.
So, What our lesson here?
1) a bare A2 is not a good hand. It a good start towards a good hand, but just a start.
2) PLO8 is always about scooping. If you need lots of help to scoop, then your hand is not very good.