|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PLO8 Hand 2: Expected Value
$200 PL Omaha Hi/Lo - Wednesday, June 22
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: nikii ( $200.45 )
Seat 3: rjschroe ( $189 )
Seat 5: Villain ( $79.25 )
Seat 6: IIIDToXIII ( $383.08 )
Seat 9: Hero ( $467.03 )
Seat 7: Elanthus ( $195.65 )
Seat 2: BorChech ( $160.35 )
Seat 10: SL2004 ( $252.1 )
Seat 8: ME262 ( $28.8 )
Seat 4: kidcrimson ( $178.85 )
Villain posts small blind [$1].
IIIDToXIII is sitting out.
Elanthus posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ J
T
A 3 ]
IIIDToXIII has left the table.
ME262 calls [$2].
Hero calls [$2].
SL2004 folds.
nikii calls [$2].
JZS123 has joined the table.
BorChech calls [$2].
rjschroe folds.
kidcrimson calls [$2].
Villain calls [$1].
Elanthus checks.
I have a decent hand, and can stand a raise, so I limp in even though I'm out of position here. I want to see a flop.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2, 8
, K ]
Villain checks.
Elanthus checks.
ME262 bets [$7].
Hero calls [$7].
nikii calls [$7].
BorChech calls [$7].
kidcrimson folds.
Villain calls [$7].
Elanthus folds.
I catch a nice flop: Nut low draw although with no counterfeit protection, and an ok but dangerous T-hi flush draw. I have nothing now, so I call. If many other callers come in, then I'll know my flush-draw is likely to be no good if I hit.
** Dealing Turn ** [ Q ]
Villain checks.
ME262 folds.
Hero bets [$24].
nikii calls [$24].
BorChech folds.
Villain calls [$24].
I caught a very good card here, perhaps the best I could. Now I have a 13-card wrap to the nuts, a semi-weak flushdraw, and the nutlow draw. So, what to do? Here is the crux of this hand, and why I posted it. I have nothing but A-high now, BUT...there are 30 cards that improve my hand!
Therefore, betting for value here is clearly correct, even tho I have nothing but draws right now! This is what I mean by Expected Value - I expect my hand to have the most value here.
Since my opponent who bet last hand now checks, it is quite likely he was drawing, and the Q cannot have helped him. Since no one raised on the flop, it's quite likely that no one has a set or good two pair here. Therefore, I am unlikely to face a strong raise, and it's fairly likely that everyone will fold. Therefore, I bet out to try and accomplish several things:
- I'd like to try and win the pot right here, so I want my bet to be reasonably large to try and win this now.
- But If I hit my hand, it will be very strong, so I don't mind having several players come in either.
- My hand is strong enough to stand a reraise here, so I'm willing to see what happens.
** Dealing River ** [ T ]
Villain is all-In.
Hero raises [$92.5].
Perfect - I hit my nut straight and get bet into! My opponent called on the flop with just a Q-hi flushdraw on a board with 2 low cards - pretty bad play. He then called on the turn with a 19 card straight-flush wrap, which on the surface is a reasonable decision. Except that the problem is very few of his outs are to the nuts.
nikii folds.
Hero shows [ J, T, A, 3 ] a straight, ten to ace.
Villain doesn't show [ Q, 9
, T, J ] a straight, nine to king.
Hero wins $46.25 from side pot #1 with a straight, ten to ace.
Hero wins $210.5 from the main pot with a straight, ten to ace.
