PLO8 Hand 2: Expected Value
$200 PL Omaha Hi/Lo - Wednesday, June 22
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: nikii ( $200.45 )
Seat 3: rjschroe ( $189 )
Seat 5: Villain ( $79.25 )
Seat 6: IIIDToXIII ( $383.08 )
Seat 9: Hero ( $467.03 )
Seat 7: Elanthus ( $195.65 )
Seat 2: BorChech ( $160.35 )
Seat 10: SL2004 ( $252.1 )
Seat 8: ME262 ( $28.8 )
Seat 4: kidcrimson ( $178.85 )
Villain posts small blind [$1].
IIIDToXIII is sitting out.
Elanthus posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Jh Ts Ah 3s ]
IIIDToXIII has left the table.
ME262 calls [$2].
Hero calls [$2].
SL2004 folds.
nikii calls [$2].
JZS123 has joined the table.
BorChech calls [$2].
rjschroe folds.
kidcrimson calls [$2].
Villain calls [$1].
Elanthus checks.
I have a decent hand, and can stand a raise, so I limp in even though I'm out of position here. I want to see a flop.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2s, 8c, Ks ]
Villain checks.
Elanthus checks.
ME262 bets [$7].
Hero calls [$7].
nikii calls [$7].
BorChech calls [$7].
kidcrimson folds.
Villain calls [$7].
Elanthus folds.
I catch a nice flop: Nut low draw although with no counterfeit protection, and an ok but dangerous T-hi flush draw. I have nothing now, so I call. If many other callers come in, then I'll know my flush-draw is likely to be no good if I hit.
** Dealing Turn ** [ Qh ]
Villain checks.
ME262 folds.
Hero bets [$24].
nikii calls [$24].
BorChech folds.
Villain calls [$24].
I caught a very good card here, perhaps the best I could. Now I have a 13-card wrap to the nuts, a semi-weak flushdraw, and the nutlow draw.
So, what to do? Here is the crux of this hand, and why I posted it. I have nothing but A-high now, BUT...there are 30 cards that improve my hand!
14 cards give me excellent scooping or 3/4ing chances -- the 4,5,6,7 of spades give me nutlow with flush, and the non-spade 9,T,J,A gives me the nut straight.
12 more cards give me excellent splitting chances with nut low with nut no-pair for high -- the non-spade 4,5,6,7 -- this is somewhat dangerous for me but likely good for half the pot.
4 more cards give me a T-hi flush -- this is somewhat dangerous for me, as having 4 opponents with a spadeflush on the board means I am likely beat. But it's still possible to win.
Therefore, betting for value here is clearly correct, even tho I have nothing but draws right now! This is what I mean by Expected Value -- I expect my hand to have the most value here.
Since my opponent who bet last hand now checks, it is quite likely he was drawing, and the Q cannot have helped him. Since no one raised on the flop, it's quite likely that no one has a set or good two pair here. Therefore, I am unlikely to face a strong raise, and it's fairly likely that everyone will fold. Therefore, I bet out to try and accomplish several things:
1) I'd like to try and win the pot right here, so I want my bet to be reasonably large to try and win this now.
2) But If I hit my hand, it will be very strong, so I don't mind having several players come in either.
3) My hand is strong enough to stand a reraise here, so I'm willing to see what happens.
** Dealing River ** [ Tc ]
Villain is all-In.
Hero raises [$92.5].
Perfect -- I hit my nut straight and get bet into! My opponent called on the flop with just a Q-hi flushdraw on a board with 2 low cards -- pretty bad play. He then called on the turn with a 19 card straight-flush wrap, which on the surface is a reasonable decision. Except that the problem is very few of his outs are to the nuts. Any high spade gives him only the 3-rd best hand, any Q or J gives him the 2nd best straight, and any A or 9 can tie him, and any low spade splits with a low. Against my actual hand he had just 2 outs to scoop me -- the As and 9s -- out of those 19 outs he has.
nikii folds.
Hero shows [ Jh, Ts, Ah, 3s ] a straight, ten to ace.
Villain doesn't show [ Qs, 9d, Td, Js ] a straight, nine to king.
Hero wins $46.25 from side pot #1 with a straight, ten to ace.
Hero wins $210.5 from the main pot with a straight, ten to ace.