PLO8  Hand 1:  Your Goal is Still Scooping

$200 PL Omaha Hi/Lo - Monday, June 20

Seat 6 is the button

Total number of players : 9

Seat 1:  ( $178.81 )  Our MegaFish

Seat 5:  ( $334.68 )

Seat 10: ( $155.28 )

Seat 7:  ( $446.57 )  Our Hero

Seat 4:  ( $189.8 )

Seat 8:  ( $572.26 )

Seat 6:  ( $252.4 )

Seat 2:  ( $80.31 )

Seat 3:  ( $187 )

Hero posts small blind [$1].

BB posts big blind [$2].

** Dealing down cards **

Dealt to Hero [ 6h 3h 3c Ah ]

5 Fishies limp in

Hero calls [$1].

BB checks.

Yes, 5 Count 'em 5 Fishies limp in.  This was a good game.  

I don't raise because there aren't many cards that let me scoop, and I'm out of position.

** Dealing Flop ** [ Jh, 3s, 6d ]

Hero checks.

MegaFish bets [$10].

All fold to Hero.

I have a set!   What to do?  

Answer: You fold, and it's not that close. 

To bet from early position into a field of 6 opponents, our villain MegaFish must have one of the following:

a) a higher set ie. JJ, 66 .   It this case, I am buried and drawing dead.

b) A2 plus something like Jx, J6, QQ, 45.  In this case, he has around an 78% chance of making his low, so I'd just get my money back.  And he has some chances of making a high.  With a pair he has two outs, with straight draw he's got 8 outs, and with a monster like A2JJ I'm crushed. 

Now, you might think that's monster-under-the-bed syndrome.  But the bottom line is:

I have no chance for low on a flop that will generate a low 80% of the time.  AND my high might be beat and can be outdrawn.  AND I'm out of position playing semi-deep-stacked.