Hand 8: Buying a Free Card (and playing weak hands)
POKERSTARS GAME $5/$10 -
September
Seat #8 is the button
Seat 3: Villain ($381 in chips)
Seat 4: Folder ($50 in chips)
Seat 5: RandomGuy ($22 in chips)
Seat 7: OtherDude ($273 in chips)
Seat 8: Hero ($126.50 in chips)
Villain: posts small blind $2
Folder: posts big blind $5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [5
A
J 8]
RandomGuy: calls $5
OtherDude: calls $5
Hero: calls $5
Villain: calls $3
Folder: checks
This is a shorthanded game, so with only 5 opponents and position on the button, I will play A5s. I might raise this hand shorthanded if I thought it might knock out some competition, but here I didn't think it would so I just limp.
*** FLOP *** [Q 7 T
]
Villain: bets $5
Folder: folds
RandomGuy: folds
OtherDude: calls $5
Hero: raises $5 to $10
Villain: calls $5
OtherDude: calls $5
The first thing to notice is that I have a double gut-shot --- any K or 9 will make me a straight, although only the K outs are to the nut straight. The other key features on this flop are 1) it's short-handed so a 9 is still likely to make the best hand here, 2) it is rainbow, so all my straight outs will be good, 3) there are no straights currently possible so I am not drawing very thin, 4) there is only 1 low card, so low draws should not be sticking around. Which means that my A5 might make an emergency backup low if hands like A245 fold as they should, 5) Most people won't play hands like 77xx and TTxx so I am less likely to be against a set, and many won't play 89Jx so I am not likely to be against a big wrap, 6) If I hit my hand, it will be reasonably well disguised so I should get paid off.
One of the keys to shorthanded play is aggression, so I raise here. My objectives are:
1) I hope to get a free card on the turn. Many times people will check to the raiser, so it's fairly likely I can see the river for just the additional $5 bet on the cheap street (the flop). This is my main reason for raising -- seeing cheap turn/river cards.
2) I want to see if anyone has a real monster like QQ or QJT9. If so, they will likely re-raise me now and that will make it an easy decision for me to fold if the board pairs on the turn or river, so the second benefit of raising the flop is to make my decisions on the turn/river easier.
3) They might make incorrect folds. They might both fold right now -- I consider that pretty unlikely, but it's still possible. Much more likely, one of them might fold now, in which case I could try semi-bluffing on the the turn and river against just 1 opponent, which might let me win the pot. So the last benefit is to generate incorrect folds in my opponents.
*** TURN *** [Q 7 T] [K]
Villain: checks
OtherDude: checks
Hero: bets $10
Villain: calls $10
OtherDude: calls $10
I hit my K for the nut straight, so obviously I bet out. Since both are still here, I would have checked if I had missed here. The river cards I am worried about are a Q most of all, also a T or 7, and somewhat concerned but less likely about diamonds since that would be a backdoor draw.
*** RIVER *** [Q 7 T K] [4]
Villain: checks
OtherDude: checks
Hero: bets $10
Villain: calls $10
OtherDude: folds
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Hero: shows [5 A J 8] (HI: a straight, Ten to Ace)
Villain: mucks [Q 6 6 7]
Hero collected $103 from pot
No low hand qualified
On a sidenote, I think Villain's call from the SB with that hand is marginal.
First, let's look at the arguments FOR calling:
1. He is getting good odds -- a $3 call to win $22
2. He has a reasonable hand -- roughly ~top 50% of all hands
3. Against my actual hand, he has decent chances, as 2dimes rates me only a 54% to 46% favorite
Now the arguments against calling:
1. He still must beat 4 other players to win
2. He is out of position in the SB for the whole hand
3. Very importantly, it is difficult for him to scoop. If he hits strongly with a 6 for example, then its likely a low will be made. If he gets Q7 then either lows or better two pairs are possible. Net, its hard to scoop.
4. Very importantly, his hand will rarely be the nuts, which means he has little bet-ability. So when his hand is best, he cannot be jamming to maximize result, and when its worst he'll be calling down. In the actual hand for example, he was a 2:1 favorite over me on the flop but had to just call my raise -- because he doesn't know where he is in the hand. So even tho 2dimes shows his actual hand as being almost even to mine in value, in reality it is much worse -- because the times I am ahead I can jam the betting to maximize results, while he can't.
I'm not going to recommend folding with his hand in the SB, but I will say its a close decision that requires accurate post-flop play to make a call profitable, and that folding is a lot closer to being correct than it would appear.