Hand 6: It's OK to Fold

$2/$4 Omaha Hi/Lo -  June 2005
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: EAGLE1A ( $143.86 )
Seat 7: Hero ( $92.47 )
Seat 3: malaka2004 ( $87.5 )
Seat 10: THEBROKER62 ( $70.49 )
Seat 2: SIMEWIN ( $42.83 )
Seat 5: S1PPO ( $131.75 )
Seat 6: kaila1 ( $63.63 )
Seat 9: jst42da ( $58.05 )
Seat 8: Villain ( $34.5 )
Seat 4: railroadman2 ( $54.37 )
THEBROKER62 posts small blind [$1].
EAGLE1A posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ A T 7 A ]
SIMEWIN folds.
malaka2004 folds.
S1PPO folds.
kaila1 folds.
Hero raises [$4].
Villain raises [$6].
jst42da folds.
THEBROKER62 folds.
EAGLE1A folds.
Hero raises [$4].
Villain calls [$2].

Here I have a hand that changes value significantly with opponents.  If I am heads up, then I'm only an underdog to AA with better low, so I'm very strong.  If I'm multi-way with many tight limpers so my Aces are gone, then my AAxx rainbow where xx are worthless means my hand is a fold.  It's true that I might have even equity, but the way to make money in poker is when opponents have good second-best hands -- so if I don't hit a set then I'm likely to win a small pot or lose a big one.

So I want this pot as shorthanded as possible.  With 4 folds ahead of me, I clearly want to open-raise.  When my opponent re-raises, this is good -- we are likely to get heads up and have the $3 overlay in the blinds.

** Dealing Flop ** [ 7, 8, 5 ]   pot = $19
Hero bets [$2].
Villain calls [$2].

I bet because I'm getting 10:1 on my money, and could have the best hand here.  I also want to find out where I'm at on the cheap street -- if he raises, then I have to re-evaluate and strongly consider folding.

Ok, so here's the important bit for this hand.  What should my opponent do?   Here is his hand:  As, Kh, Th, Ac

As always, he should first try to put me on a hand.  When I raise first-in preflop and then re-raise, it's most likely I have AAxx.  I could also have a hand like A2KK or A23K, but that's a little less likely if only because AAxx requires just two specific cards while A23K requires four specific cards.  Since my opponent has As Ac, he should realize its very likely I have Ad, and since there are two diamonds on the board it's at least 50-50 I have a diamond draw.  He should also realize that if I have AA for two of my cards, its extremely likely that I have a low, since I just need one of my other two cards to be anything from 2,3,4,5,6,7,8. 

Specifically, if I have AA here, then a) ~ 60% of the time I’ll have a made low, b) another 30% of the time I’ll have AA7/AA5 which gives me 60% chance of a low.  And that’s with AA, if I have anything else it’s an A2.  So, he is likely losing low well over 80% of the time here.  

But what about high?  If I’ve got AA then we’re tied right now. If my Ad is suited, then I’m free-rolling for a flush, and if my side cards connected then I’m free-rolling for the straight.

Net, his best guess should 1) put me as being tied with him for high right now, 2) a fairly good chance that I am freerolling him for high, 3) very likely to be losing low.  

So we've established that his hand is pretty bad in relation to what I am likely to have here.  But is he getting pot odds?

Well, you could say his call on the flop puts $23 in so he's getting 11.5 to 1 odds.  But that would be misleading.  When head to head with a very good chance of losing low, he is really just fighting for the $19 in the pot before I bet.  So he needs to look at what he’ll put in altogether on the flop, turn and river and compare it to the $19 in the pot.  Here, he’ll have to put in anther $10.  Which means that if I 3/4 him then he loses $1 if he continues on the flop vs. folding, so he needs me to have ~74% equity or less here.

Let's put my range together with the pot odds:

AAT7 --          71%  with my actual hand he is just barely correct to call me down to the river.  And I don't have a good low or diamonds, meaning I have one of the weaker hands he should have put me on!

AAT7 w diam  83%

AA36 --          79%   Based on mathematical distribution, this is my most likely hand here, if you assume I have AA

AA36 w diam 87%

But let's say I had a good A2 hand, or perhaps a set:

A237 w diam 80%

A237 --          65%

A255 --          96%

Net, he is anywhere from a dog at 65% to 87% or worse here.  Of course, I may be bluffing.  But then, I might have a set.

So this is a hand where he really should fold based on my most likely range here.  And if calling is slightly correct based on his read of me, then it is just barely correct.

** Dealing Turn ** [ 9 ]
Hero checks.
Villain bets [$4].
Hero raises [$8].
Villain calls [$4].

The rest of the hand is fairly straightforward.  I'm concerned about any number of low hands I'd like to fold, and AA with weak lows.  The main difference between my hand and his is that I am the aggressor, meaning I can also win thru him folding, even if that will happen a low percentage of the time.  I might also be able to freeze him from betting on the river if I decide I need to check the river.

** Dealing River ** [ 6 ]
Hero bets [$4].
Villain calls [$4].

I make my straight so am also certain to have the best high now, and with my A7 in hand I have a weak low which might be good.

And it is, so I scoop.  I was lucky to win high with my straight here, but even without that, I would have 3/4'd my opponent, and his actions on the flop turn river would still have lost him money.

The lesson:  When you have weak highs with no lows at all, just fold and move on.

Hero shows [ A, T, 7, A ] a straight, six to ten.
Hero shows 8,7,6,5,A for low.
Villain doesn't show [ A, K, T, A ] a pair of aces.
Hero wins $22.5 from the main pot with a straight, six to ten.
Hero wins Lo ($22.5) from the main pot with 8,7,6,5,A.