Hand
3: A Good Bluff
$10/$20
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: ( $460.95 )
Seat 2: ( $270.5 ) Our Hero
Seat 3: ( $415 ) Villain
Seat 4: ( $516.75 )
Seat 5: ( $538.6 )
Seat 6: ( $659 )
Seat 8: ( $664.5 )
Seat 10: ( $390.11 )
Seat 9: ( $0 )
Seat 7: BigBlind ( $480 )
Seat 5 posts small blind [$5].
Seat 7 posts big blind [$10].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 3
3
A 5 ]
4 folds
Hero
raises [$20].
Villain calls [$20].
All fold
I
raise first in from CO+1 because this is a tight aggressive $10-20 game, and 1)
there is a chance I will win the blinds outright, 2) I might get heads up with
just one other player to battle for the blinds, 3) My hand is good enough to get
called or raised – it plays well multi-way but also well shorthanded with the
pair, 4) it can buy me position as effective button last to act, 5) it
makes me the aggressor, so I can probably generate some folds.
I
end up head to head, which is fine.
**
Dealing Flop ** [ J
, 6, K ]
Hero checks.
Villain bets [$10].
Hero raises [$20].
Villain folds folds.
I
have three real choices here:
1)
Give up and check-fold, or
2)
Continuation bet,
3)
Check-Raise
There
are a few key questions to ask before we decide what to do:
First,
how likely is it that my opponent has a hand he can call with?
Here, its fairly unlikely. He needs to have two hearts or a set
basically. Additionally, most people who call raises tend to have A2/A3
type hands, so it's likely he missed for his low. Therefore giving up with
a check-fold is less desirable.
Second,
how likely is it that he'll believe me if I bluff? On
the one hand, I too am unlikely to have made anything, and he'll know this.
On the other hand, it's certainly possible that I could, since I've represented
a good A2 with my bet. He is a bit of a loose caller, so if I bet out, its
reasonably likely he'll just keep calling me. On the other hand, he is bad
and not very imaginative, so tricky plays can work. Here, the pot is still
reasonably small, so he'll feel less pressure to call because of "pot
odds"
So
I decide to check hoping for the check-raise. It's too likely that he has
also missed this flop, and it's too likely that he'll expect a continuation bet
and just call me.
Fortunately
my bluff works here, but it works because
1)
The chances he can call are low compared to his hand range
2)
The pot is large enough to be worth going for, but not so large that he feels he
must try for it
3)
I am up against just one opponent
4)
I can easily have what I'm representing
5)
I am getting good odds, needing to risk $20 to win $65 if he folds