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Hand 2: Expected Value, or Decide Based on His Range of Hands, Not What you're Afraid He Might Have
$10/$20 Omaha Hi/Lo - Friday, June 17
Table Table 27302 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: Hero ( $580 )
Seat 8: Villain ( $807.63 )
Seat 3: Fishy ( $708.75 )
Seat 10: Tighty ( $727 )
Seat 5: Normal ( $550.06 )
Seat 9: SuperRock ( $499 )
Seat 2: RandomGuy1 ( $456 )
Seat 4: TightyMcTight ( $460 )
Seat 6: RandomGuy2 ( $460 )
Seat 7: Somedude ( $473.25 )
SB [$5].
BB [$10].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ A
6
T 2
]
Villain calls [$10].
2 folds
Hero calls [$10].
RandomGuy1 calls [$10].
3 folds
RandomGuy 2 completes
RandomGuy3 checks.
So I have a nice hand: A2 suited is the best feature and playable on its own. Then I have the emergency backup low card, the 6, which helps some, and then some random stuff which is better than nothing but doesn't help alot -- suited to the T, and some 3-gapper straights. I'm looking for clubs and lows here.
I decide to call rather than raise preflop for several reasons: 1) My hand is good in a short-handed field, but excellent against a larger field, so I want others to stay in, 2) There are two tight players after me, who I didn't want to fold.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5, 3, K ] pot=$45
Villain checks
Hero checks
RG1 checks
RG2 checks
RG3 checks
Hero can bet this for value, but with a large field, I will need to hit my gutshot or low to make money, and if I do I don't want anyone to have folded. So I decide to play it a little bit deceptively. I probably lose a little bit of value on the flop, but it improves the chances everyone stays in and gives me some deception for the bigger bet streets.
** Dealing Turn ** [ T]
2 checks
Hero bets [$20].
2 folds
Villain calls [$20].
1 fold
I still have very little, but apparently so do my opponents. Since no one bet the flop, I figure my T might be good, and I have 4 gutshot outs plus another 12 low outs and might yet catch two pair. One benefit of not betting the flop is that my opponents are now getting ~3:1 odds instead of ~5:1, so they should fold more hands here.
** Dealing River ** [ 4 ]
Villain bets [$20].
Here is the crux of the hand -- what should hero do? I have the nut low and a straight, but the flush hit and Villain has bet out.
Hero raises [$40].
Villain calls [$20].
Here is the crux of poker --making EV+ decisions. We simply need to ask, "Are we more likely to scoop/3/4 our opponent here, or are we more likely to be 3/4 here". At first glance, it seems as though Villain "must" have the flush. But his range of hands makes it more likely we're ahead here - he can have lows, weaker flushes, a weak low plus some weak high, or a bluff. But to have us 3/4 he would need to have A2+a flush.
Villain doesn't show [ J , A , 5 , 4 ] two pairs, fives and fours.
Hero wins $81 from the main pot with a straight, two to six.
Hero wins Lo ($81) from the main pot with 5,4,3,2,A.
Lesson
- Don't think about what your opponent COULD have that would hurt you. Instead, think about what RANGE OF HANDS your opponent could have in a situation.
