Hand 2: Expected Value, or Decide Based on His Range of Hands, Not What you're Afraid He
Might Have
$10/$20 Omaha Hi/Lo - Friday, June 17
Table Table 27302 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: Hero ( $580 )
Seat 8: Villain ( $807.63 )
Seat 3: Fishy ( $708.75 )
Seat 10: Tighty ( $727 )
Seat 5: Normal ( $550.06 )
Seat 9: SuperRock ( $499 )
Seat 2: RandomGuy1 ( $456 )
Seat 4: TightyMcTight ( $460 )
Seat 6: RandomGuy2 ( $460 )
Seat 7: Somedude ( $473.25 )
SB [$5].
BB [$10].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ A
6
T 2
]
Villain calls [$10].
2 folds
Hero calls [$10].
RandomGuy1 calls [$10].
3 folds
RandomGuy 2 completes
RandomGuy3 checks.
So I have a nice hand: A2 suited is the best feature and playable on its
own. Then I have the emergency backup low card, the 6, which helps some,
and then some random stuff which is better than nothing but doesn't help alot --
suited to the T, and some 3-gapper straights. I'm looking for clubs and
lows here.
I decide to call rather than raise preflop for several reasons: 1) My hand
is good in a short-handed field, but excellent against a larger field, so I want
others to stay in, 2) There are two tight players after me, who I didn't want to
fold, 3) I likely have more equity than my opponents here so raising might be
best. However, raising gives something up too -- i give away my hand a
little and might lose some bets on later streets.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5
, 3, K ]
pot=$45
Villain checks
Hero checks
RG1 checks
RG2 checks
RG3 checks
I decide to check here because I basically have nothing. I have a
gutshot and nutlowdraw with no counterfeit protection, and my opponents are a
bit fishy so I am very sure a bet will be called. Someone asked me
why I wouldn't bet here, with the idea being that I have more pot equity than my
opponents. The problem is that I have 4 outs for my straight, and another
12 outs for low. Since the low is half the pot, let's call those 6 outs
for the moment + the 4 = 10 scoop outs to make my hand, and then let's add 2
outs for my backdoor flushdraws. So I have roughly 12 scoop outs to make
my hand.
So that would seem to be just enough to
bet, since with 4 opponents I need 20% equity and with 45 unseen cards that
means about 9 outs. But I actually have less than my 12 outs, since 1) I
could be splitting for low, 2) I could get counterfeited for low, 3) I could get
raised or check-raised, 4) there are redraws to flushes or full-houses. So
I actually think I have more like ~8 outs here.
** Dealing Turn ** [ T ]
2 checks
Hero bets [$20].
2 folds
Villain calls [$20].
1 fold
I still have very little, but
apparently so do my opponents. Since no one bet the flop, I figure my T
might be good, and I have 4 gutshot outs plus another 12 low outs and might yet
catch two pair. One benefit of not betting the flop when i had low equity
in it is that I can now present my opponents with ~3:1 odds instead of ~5:1, so
he should be willing to fold more hands here.
** Dealing River ** [ 4 ]
Villain bets [$20].
Here is the crux of the hand and why I
posted this -- what should hero do? He has the nut low and nut straight,
but the flush hit and Villain has bet out.
Hero raises [$40].
Villain calls [$20].
Hero shows A 6 T 2 a straight, two to six.
Here is the crux of poker --making EV+
decisions. We simply need to ask, "Are we more likely to scoop/3/4
our opponent here, or are we more likely to be 3/4 here. At first glance,
it seems as though Villain "must" have the flush so we're tied, or
worse, he's 3/4 us. But his range of hands makes it more likely we're
ahead here.
Hero shows 5,4,3,2,A for low.
Villain doesn't show [ J, A
, 5, 4 ] two pairs, fives and fours.
Hero wins $81 from the main pot with a straight, two to six.
Hero wins Lo ($81) from the main pot with 5,4,3,2,A.
Lesson
1. Don't think about what your opponent
COULD have that would hurt you. Instead, think about what RANGE OF HANDS
your opponent could have in a situation.